hey everyone!

sorry I havent posted to the regular readers. I've been everso busy preparing for college and the AP exams. I dont have time right now to make a large post but I will make a larger post early next week.

Its raining and it better rain all night. This is my last report for the night. Its cooled to 61.1 with .02" so far.

good night to america and to all.

Did these reports help you or were they pointless and a waste of time? Leave it below.. I'll take the constructive critism

RAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

At 10:38:32 the bowling ball hit the big red bullseye and my house got soaked. ITS RAINING!!!! so sweet the sound. and now it is pouring!!!

I just heard the first rumble of thunder at 10:21:32 and the rain has jet to come. Temp has dropped to 64.9. *another rumble* WSW winds at 5 mph. DP:59. Rh:82%. The line is still deteriorating.

Short Term Forecast Excerpt:
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TAMPA AND
TEMPLE TERRACE...BY 1045 PM. THE LINE WILL REACH SAINT PETERSBURG
BY 1045 PM...BRADENTON BY 11 PM...AND SARASOTA BETWEEN 1130 PM AND
MIDNIGHT. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY BELOW 2
MILES IN PINELLAS COUNTY AND WESTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...WITH
RAIN TOTALS OF AN INCH OR MORE IN A FEW SPOTS. FARTHER EAST...THE
RAINS WILL ARRIVE A BIT LATER...REACHING BRANDON AND RIVERVIEW
BEFORE 1130 PM. WINDS MAY GUST TO 30 MPH IN STRONGER CELLS AS
THEY MOVE ONSHORE.

still no rain :(

It is now 10:00. It is getting a little sticky. Temp, RH, and DP have all risen to 67.2, 77%, and 60*. Rain has moved into the north part of the county and is moving ashore to my west. I have seen one lightning flash so far.

A few numaerical changes to report at 9:30. Temp is rising, now is 68*. DP and Rh have fallen to 59* and 74%. Rain is approaching faster now only one hour away until the squall line which appears to be somewhat deteriorating.

something I wanted to add before but forgot:

NWS forecasts for tonight and tomorrow:

Tonight: Periods of showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly between 11pm and 2am. Low around 66. South wind between 10 and 14 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Friday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8am, then showers and thunderstorms likely between 8am and 2pm, then scattered showers after 2pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly sunny, with a high near 73. South wind 14 to 20 mph becoming west. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.


Friday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8am, then showers and thunderstorms likely between 8am and 2pm, then scattered showers after 2pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly sunny, with a high near 73. South wind 14 to 20 mph becoming west. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

the time is now 9:00. Nothing new in the numbers. The rain is closer, of course. Im gussing it willl be here about 2 hours or about 10:30-11. Winds have slightly picked up.

Hello everyone,

its 8:30 here and at S2K I said I would begin weather posts so here I go.

Its 67 with a light southerly breeze. Dp of 60, humidity of 77%. Its overcast and there has been no thunder or lightning yet. The rain is at least an hour away.

I will resume personal posts tomorrow after school. Next weather post is at 9:00 or if a significant change occurs

WOHOO!!

Well I know you werent expecting this but today I went above and beyond my teachers again. I went to one of my Assistant Principals today because one of my teachers said there isnt a 4th quarter exam, well i then at that monent realized that my other AP class didnt have a 4th quarter exam either. So I went and saw the As. Principal and explained what I thought and he agreed that I did not or should not have to take my 3rd quarter exam exempting it. It is policy at my school that we can exempt one exam per semester and if there was no 4th quarter exam I was not going to take my 3rd quarter exam (exempting it.) So the As. Principal agreed that all AP students along with the rest of the school could exempt their 3rd quarter exam. I know some 50-70 kids that will be very happy when I make the announcement tomorrow. For those that are afraid that a no from a teacher is the end: It is never then end, go first to the As. Principal and if you do not succeed there go to the Principal. This is the 3rd or 4th time i have overrriden a teacher by myself before in my HS career.

WOOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hey everyone,

Again before I start I want to sent out 2 condolences: First to Mark and Kathy on S2K. Mark is another victim of the War on Terrorism in Iraq. It is far more significant to lose someone you know than to look at the stats. I hope he is resting in peace in a better place.
The next condolence is to the people of Indonesia. This week they have had a devestating earthquake, a duo of Severe Tropical Cyclones on their doorstep that thankfully are now moving away, and a large plane crash. Everyones lives there are affected by the extremes and it must be very hard to live there and that is an understatement. Again i want to send condolences to these people.

This week is cram week for my HS. It will be the hardest and the last round of exams of my HS career. This will probalbly be the last post until at least saturday and maybe next tuesday. Exams are Monday and Tuesday. Im scared most for my AP US history exam which is by far the hardest class at my HS and it is harder than most early college classes! It will be the focal point of my studying. I am taking all 4 of my exams but my AP BIO exam is a lab and my English 3 exam is probably going to be very easy. My Pre-calculus exam will be a little hard, but I am aiming for a B. After these 6 days are over the hardest year of my life will be in descent with only review left.

The only other thing mentionable is that I was nominated as Member of the Month for January on S2K. Right now I am running in second place with 23% of the vote compared to Chacors 33%. I was very suprised by the nomination and I wish him all the best along with the other nominees.

I better get back to the APUSH, CYA!

Winters last shot and summers first shot at life

Hello everyone,

Before I start I would again like to send my thoughts and prayers to those in Georgia and Alabama that were hit by the devastating tornadoes last week.

Well I am tired right now. I woke up at 4:30 this morning, ugh, an hour before my alarm normally goes off. On top of that I had science FCAT today, which is a mental drainer and a pointless test. They give us a test (a new test this year,) the Science FCAT, with the only motivator is that we get a parking space reserved in the parking lot. This would be great if I had a car and if I was going to high school next year. It cant hurt me either because I wont be at dixie (my HS) next year and it wont stop me from graduation. I call that a pointless test.

Then I came home and got on S2k and then took a nap, then I had dinner, then I did AP Bio work and got 2 hours out of the way for the week.

Other than my personal life, not a hole lot has happened. The weather has turned chilly again, Its 48 right now heading for the low to mid 40's tonight. This will probably be winters last show :( . Its so cold that in Canada the cold air is showing up on satellite!

on the other side of the spectrum the GFS model is or was (I haven't checked the latest run yet) showing a subtropical disturbance off the coast of the Bahamas. It would move off to sea if it develops, which I don't think will happen.
---there is also a new TD in the WPAC (west Pacific)at 10N 144E that is almost stationary. I don't expect much from it but it can happen. For the non-WPAC followers the WPAC season runs all year.

The big story that absolutely shocked me was this Giant sinkhole if you can call it that. Here is the CNN story: http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/americas/02/23/sinkhole.ap/index.html

here are some amazing pics: http://www.ordena.com/digg/sinkhole.html

It kinda looks like the hole to china.


this is all I have to say today, tomorrow I will share my thoughts on the new TSR tropical forecast. Just a quick question, how many people actually read this? thanks Justin for the comment. Send me a PM to S2k or EUSWX at fact789, leave a comment or question here, or you can talk to me on AIM at jbelles1990.

Jonathan/fact789

Hello everyone,

Its a dreary mid-afternoon here with 61 degrees. The gosh darn cold front still has not made its way throught here yet. It will arrive just in time for the lunar eclipse tonight, which I will not be able to see. :(

Before I say anything else I want to send my prayers out to those families hit in Alabama and Georgia, especially those in Enterprise, AL. I watched some of the videos from Enterprise and surrounding areas but thes two stuck out the most:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8czbQ6YXUn4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umIHhvcohns&NR

It is now 89 days from the begininng of the 2007 hurricane season. I bring this up today because there is Tropical Development in the Atlantic according to the GFS. The GFS shows development off of a cold front parked over Florida. The so called low pressure system would develop in the Bahamas and move out to sea. Right now I do not believe it because afterall it is March, but I think it would be possible.
-----for my thoughts on the 2007 hurricane season, I am agreeing with the general consensus that it will be an above average season. I currently am thinking that it will be between 12-15 TS, 6-8 hurricanes, 2-3 major hurricanes. I expect an early season, possible starting in late June. I expect to be hit at least once this season. I expect the opposite of last season for landfalls, meaning more Cyclones coming inland in the usual areas of the Carolinas and Florida. I do not think this year will be the year for the overdue places to be hit ie NYC and Tampa. All of this is just a guess and may or may not be right; do not take this as an official forecast.
------Spring Break is comin up, finally, I am planning a cram packed week of Meteorology data. I still have to finish off last years work and get ready for this year. One thing that I will not be able to do this year is expand to the South Pacific, as that season is half over now. I was hoping to be able to do that this year but I have no spare time to do that. I'll explain all that I have to do in a later post.

This weekend I have an Essay to write and some back homework to finish, as well as some homework and exam review for next week due.

I'll talk to yall later, comments would be welcome.

Fact789/Jonathan

great day!

Something I wanna do here and there is to express my opinion on the days news. I don't wanna do it alot, but today there was a lot. So here I go...

So a lot has happened in the world today. First of all, NASA had some good and bad news. First with the bad, Shuttle Atlantis, which was supposed to take off in 2 weeks, took moderate damage from a hail storm yesturday. It will not launch in March but maybe in april or May. Atlantis has to go back to the assembly building to be fixed. a new launch date has not been chosen. The damage can be seen at NASA.gov .

---------now the good news. New Horizons is now just 4 hours and 45 mins from its closest approach to Jupiter. Thats 1,448,420 Miles. Amazing images are coming in at the link posted below.

Images of Jupiter and its moons can be seen here : Http://pluto.jhuapl.edu/gallery/missionPhotos.html

---the next new thing is a fall in the DOW. It fell 400 points at the end of the day. It was up from its 600 point drop in the entire day. I personally don't think it will last.

---Unsuprisingly, the taliban tried to bomb Dick Cheney. The only thing i have to say is, why didnt he get out his gun and shoot them? lol

---The last thing in the global news is Max Mayfields trouble with the law. I don't really wanna make the former NHC director look bad so i'm just gonna tell you the story. He caught a really big Goliath Grouper and pulled it into the boat to get the hook out and is now in hot water for doing so. In florida it is illegal to pull a Goliath Grouper into your boat. I think this is simply outrageous. I am a environmentalist and all but why cant a guy pull a hook out of a fish he caught and let it go?

Now to my life

Today it was like a summer day. We made it to 81 with some rain early in the day but nothing substantial. I'll let you go with a picture I took this eveningof the moon and a plane while i was "doing homework" as the sun was setting. At this time I counted 8 planes in the air.

murky bright day

hey everyone,

Just woke up. It feel like a spring morning, maybe even summer. The birds are singing and I can hear a lawn mower in the lot behind me. Alergies are high again this morning. I planned on going to SPC today but the person who was supposed to take lost her pink referal card and cant go, for the third time for different reasons. It's becoming normal. she's very unreliable.
Going to do some more homework late in the day. ugh its to much. My guidence councelor told me i was crazy when i signed up for the classes and she was right. lol


On the weather side of life it is 73degrees outside with a light sw wind. there is rain to my NW with the front and i expect it to fall apart before it reaches me.

new horizons, the satelite going to pluto is now only 1,593,340 miles from jupiter. You can see the latest pictures although begininng to get blurry here: http://pluto.jhuapl.edu/mission/whereis_nh_jupiter.php



other than all that this is all i have to say.

Hello everyone,

today has been a laid back day so far and nothing has really happened. I've done a couple of hours of homework and have been on the comp a little. A couple things of mention include a suprise downpour at about 9:45a this morning. It only lasted 5-10 mins and it was loud enough to wake me up. the NWS recorded .01". Another mentionable thing is that New Horizons is coming very close to Jupiter on its way to Pluto, 2,006,090 miles to be exact. elow is a picture taken at 22:00. At the left you can see the Great Red Spot.

Other than this, this is all I heve to say.

Hardest post ever

well those t-storms never got here. I heard rain but there was none recorded. It was probably less than a trace. I'm kinda frustrated, I've had a headache since 2pm and now the front gets here and theres no rain. It's the fabled Tampa Bay Shield, It keeps all rain away, hurricanes and rain from fronts no matter how much we need it. It seems that every time a front goes through there is a split in the rain line that goes right over head. Alright I'm done ranting. Hopefully the seabreeze will start bringing in some rain soon. here are some pictures of the radar as the "rain" went over head:

Before:

During:

After:

This post took me an hour and 10 mins to upload. Those pics are hard to upload and even harder to get in the right place

Waiting for the T's

It's 6:30 here now and the line is forming a few hours away now. My bones are cracking any head is hurting. Temp is 73*F with a pressure of 29.95". On and off light drizzle with a lighter wind than earlier. RADAR is getting more impressive as time goes on. Looks like I might get some action now. I can hear thunder off in the distance. I'll post pictures of the storm if I can when the line come through. I'm gonna try to tackle the crunching homework and get back later.

Hello everyone,
welcome to my new blog. From now on this is where I willl post opinions, political arguments, feelings, and most of all weather. Ill try to update whenever possible. This is where I will post my weather forecasts so that they dont take up space on S2K unless it is necessary to post on S2K. I'm going to try to make it as enjoyable as possible and maybe even attain a few regulars. Anything you can recomend or comment let me know at dhhjs@yahoo.com or here. Here is my first entry:

Well its 3:22 on Sunday February 22nd, 2007 and i'm sitting here trying to figure out this blog and awaiting a line of storms to come in. I dont think the line of storms will be that bad but we'll see. Its really hot at the minute, 78*F with a strong southerly wind and a very high humidity. It's very muggy right now, comparable to the summer.

I dont have to go to school tomorrow because of the FCAT's and as any other kid that doesnt have to go i'm rejoycing. I dont have to go to school until thursday but i have a heavy load of homework that has to be done, 6-10 hours of it. I'm so glad that this is my last year in high school. Next year im going full time to Saint Petersburg College Dual Enrolled. I'm going there with my best friend and hopefully a couple other people that i know.

Ill report later during the storm

you can contact me at the e-mail posted above or at Jbelles1990 (AIM)

Jonathan/Fact789